What Will Commercial Printing Look Like in 2008? 2011?
The scenarios were presented to PFC-CV subscribers in greater detail and analysis over the last two issues. But here are the highlights for 2011:
Forecast Scenario 1: 28,000 establishments, $66 billion in shipments
Forecast Scenario 2: 35,000 establishments, $53 billion in shipments
They are quite different, and they are both legitimate statistical forecasts. Neither of them will be right, most likely. The examination of alternative scenarios, however, is an important element of a beneficial strategic development process. No one can accurately forecast the future with great certainty. Most times, future trends are clear but the timing is not. The way management prepares itself to deal with changes in the marketplace is to create scenarios of differing market conditions and to think them through, company function by function. This aids in the creation of a robust strategy that can withstand market uncertainties. It also allows management to develop contingency plans that they can implement at the appropriate time.