Economic Recovery Continues in 2010: Institute for Supply Management

Non-Manufacturing
For the first half of 2010, non-manufacturing supply managers who report that their organizations engage in exporting feel less optimistic than they did one year ago concerning their export business. Of the 24 percent of non-manufacturing business survey respondents who report that they export, 15 percent predict an increase (15 percent moderate and 0 percent substantial) over the next half year. Fifteen percent of the respondents expect a decrease in their exports (15 percent moderate and 0 percent substantial), and 70 percent anticipate no change in exports over the next half year. Of the industries that report they export, the following three industries expect growth in export business in the first half of 2010: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Accommodation & Food Services; and Retail Trade.

IMPORT BUSINESS — Predicted Change for Next Half Year (First Half of 2010)

Manufacturing
Purchasers expect an increase in imports in the first half of 2010. Of the 87 percent of purchasers who reported they import, 43 percent predict an increase in their imports over the next half year (37 percent moderate and 6 percent substantial), while 10 percent predict a decrease in imports of materials (9 percent moderate and 1 percent substantial). Slightly less than half of survey respondents (47 percent) expect no change in imports. The 14 industries expecting growth in imports — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing(a); Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products.

Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturers have higher expectations for the use of imports for the first half of 2010 than they did in December 2008 for the first half of 2009. Of the 46 percent of non-manufacturing organizations who reported they import, 28 percent (28 percent moderate and 0 percent substantial) predict an increase in their imports during the first half of 2010. Twelve percent of the respondents (10 percent moderate and 2 percent substantial) predict a decrease in imports of materials and services. The remaining 60 percent of purchasers expect no change in imports over the next half year. The six industries expecting growth in imports — listed in order — are: Other Services(b); Wholesale Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Retail Trade.