Economic Recovery Continues in 2010: Institute for Supply Management

BUSINESS COMPARISON

The First Half of 2010 with Last Half of 2009

Manufacturing
Looking ahead to the first half of 2010, survey respondents are optimistic about the next half year. Comparing their outlook for the first half of 2010 to the last half of 2009, 46 percent predict it will be better, 18 percent predict it will be worse, and 36 percent expect no change. Compared to the diffusion index for the same relative prediction one year ago (33 percent), respondents are significantly more optimistic about prospects in the manufacturing sector for the first half year (64 percent). The 14 industries expecting improvement in 2010 — listed in order — are: Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing(a); Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Non-Manufacturing
The first half of 2010 is predicted to be stronger than the last half of 2009, according to non-manufacturing purchasing and supply managers. The diffusion index indicating current expectations is 62.5 percent. Forty percent of respondents expect the first half of next year to be better than the last half of this year, 15 percent anticipate it will be worse, and 45 percent predict no change. The 10 industries expecting improvement in the first half of 2010 — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Other Services(b); Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Retail Trade.

The Second Half of 2010 with the First Half of 2010

Manufacturing
Purchasing and supply executives are more optimistic about the second half of 2010 compared to the first half of the year. The percentage of survey respondents who forecast the second half of 2010 to be better than the first half is 50 percent, while 3 percent expect it to be worse, and 47 percent expect no change. The 15 industries predicting improvement in the second half of 2010 — listed in order — are: Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing(a); Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products.