Economic Recovery Continues in 2010: Institute for Supply Management

BUSINESS REVENUES

Business Revenues Comparison — 2009 vs. 2008

Manufacturing
Summarizing revenues for 2009, 22 percent of respondents say revenue was better than 2008, and that nominal (before adjusting for inflation) revenues increased an average of 20.3 percent over 2008. Conversely, 68 percent say their nominal revenues decreased in 2009 by an average of 22.1 percent, and the remaining 10 percent indicate no change. Purchasing and supply executives indicate an overall net nominal decrease of 10.7 percent in business revenues for 2009 over 2008. This is less than the 14.7 percent decrease that was forecast in April 2009 for all of 2009, and more than the 1.1 percent decrease predicted in December 2008 for all of 2009. The three industries reporting increases (highest to lowest) in revenues in 2009 are: Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing(a); and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing supply management executives report that business revenues for 2009 have decreased over 2008 by 4.5 percent. This is less than the 5.1 percent decrease predicted in April 2009 for all of 2009. This compares to a 0.7 percent increase reported one year ago for 2008 revenues over 2007 revenues. The 22 percent of respondents reporting better business in 2009 than in 2008 estimate an average nominal (before adjusting for inflation) revenue increase of 18.5 percent. This is in contrast to an average nominal decrease of 13.9 percent reported by the 62 percent of respondents who indicate worse business in 2009. The remaining 16 percent have experienced no change in 2009. The five industries reporting increases in revenues in 2009 are: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Other Services(b); Retail Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Business Revenues Prediction for 2010

Manufacturing
Purchasers forecast that 2010 will be better than 2009 as measured by their revenue expectations. The 60 percent of respondents forecasting better business in 2010 than in 2009 estimate an average nominal (before adjusting for inflation) increase of 12 percent in their organizations’ revenues. This is in contrast to an average nominal decrease of 17.8 percent forecast by the 9 percent who predict worse business in 2010. Including the 31 percent who see no change in 2010, the forecast for overall net nominal increase in business revenues for 2010 over 2009 is 5.7 percent. The 13 manufacturing industries expecting improvement over 2009 — in order of percentage increase — are: Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing(a); Textile Mills; and Fabricated Metal Products.