Economic Recovery Continues in 2010: Institute for Supply Management
Change in Overall Employment
ISM's Manufacturing Business Survey Committee members report that manufacturing employment decreased 7.1 percent since April 2009, and forecast that it will increase 1.5 percent in 2010. Thirty-two percent expect employment to be 8.4 percent higher, while 14 percent predict employment to be lower by 8.3 percent. The remaining 54 percent of respondents expect their employment levels to be unchanged in 2010. The 11 industries predicting increases in employment — in order of percentage increase — are: Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing(a); Machinery; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Fabricated Metal Products.
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee members report that non-manufacturing employment has decreased 4.9 percent since April 2009. Looking ahead to 2010, they forecast that employment will decrease 0.6 percent by the end of 2010. For 2010, 15 percent of respondents expect higher levels of employment, 27 percent anticipate lower levels, and 58 percent expect their employment levels to be unchanged. The four industries anticipating increases in their employment in 2010 are: Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Retail Trade.
EXPORT BUSINESS — Predicted Change for Next Half Year (First Half of 2010)
The responses for this semiannual report indicate purchasers see increases in new export orders for the first half of 2010. This is consistent with the most recent ISM New Export Orders Index data in the monthly Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®, which has shown growth in new export orders in the last five months. Of the 77 percent of respondents who export, 64 percent predict an increase (60 percent moderate and 4 percent substantial) over the next half-year. Two percent of respondents (2 percent moderate and 0 percent substantial) predict a decrease in their exports, and 34 percent anticipate no change in exports over the next half-year. The 15 industries expecting growth in exports during the first half of 2010 — in order of percentage increase — are: Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing(a); Primary Metals; and Machinery.