Taiwan

One morning last month, the daily newspapers simultaneously gladdened my heart and embarrassed me. My pleasure came not from the chagrin—I'm hardly fond of humiliation—but from a report about the unexpectedly strong growth of employment and the likelihood that '99 will bring yet another year of economic growth. I'm delighted by the news, but embarrassed by the memory of a column of mine that appeared in these pages in November. It offered marketing advice for the imminent downturn that many economists then predicted. I reported their projections, but I hedged: Before winter is over, slower demand may begin to reduce the number of cylinders in

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