2026 Midterm Election Outlook: What's at Stake for the Printing Industry?

With the Nov. 3 midterm elections approaching, control of both chambers of Congress is increasingly competitive. Recent analyses from the Cook Political Report indicate that several congressional races are shifting toward Democrats, raising questions about the balance of power in Washington and the potential implications for federal policymaking.

Stephanie Buka, government affairs manager at PRINTING United Alliance, shares the latest outlook for the House and Senate elections and what the results could mean for the printing industry.

Steph Buka: What is the outlook for control of the U.S. House of Representatives?

Printing Impressions (PI): The battle for control of the House is becoming increasingly competitive, with several traditionally Republican districts now in play.

According to an Oct. 16 analysis by the Cook Political Report, 11 additional House races have shifted toward Democrats. Much of the movement is occurring in Midwestern states, particularly Ohio, Nebraska, and Kansas, where economic concerns and voter dissatisfaction are contributing to tighter races.

While Republicans remain favored in several of these districts, the expanding number of competitive contests suggests that control of the House could depend on a relatively small number of closely contested elections.

Buka: Which House races should voters be watching?

PI: Several congressional districts have become more competitive in recent weeks.

• Montana's 1st District: Shifted from Lean Republican to Toss Up.
• Ohio's 10th and 15th Districts: Shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
• Minnesota's 1st District: Shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
• New York's 21st District: Shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
• Nebraska's 1st District and Kansas' 2nd District: Shifted from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
• Florida's 25th District: Shifted from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.

These changes highlight the growing importance of competitive districts, including those with significant manufacturing and small business interests.

Buka: Could control of the U.S. Senate also change?

PI: Yes. According to an Oct. 6 analysis by the Cook Political Report, Democrats have an increasingly viable path to regaining the Senate majority. The publication estimates that Democrats could gain between two and six Senate seats, putting the four-seat net gain needed for a majority within reach.

Although Republicans maintain a financial advantage in many competitive states, concerns over rising fuel prices, the cost of living, and broader economic conditions are creating challenges for Republican candidates.

Republicans are seeking to defend vulnerable seats while pursuing pickup opportunities in states such as Michigan and Maine, which could determine whether they retain their majority.

Buka: Which Senate races could determine the balance of power?

PI: The Cook Political Report recently adjusted ratings for three Senate races, all in Democrats' favor.

• Kansas: Shifted from Lean Republican to Toss Up. Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces a competitive challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton. Economic concerns, particularly in the agricultural sector, have contributed to a tightening race in a traditionally Republican state.
• New Hampshire: Shifted from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has gained an advantage over former Republican Sen. John Sununu, according to recent polling.
• North Carolina: Shifted from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has strengthened his position against Republican Michael Whatley, with affordability emerging as a central campaign issue.

These developments suggest that both parties may need to reassess where they direct campaign resources during the final weeks before Election Day.

Buka: What issues are influencing voters in congressional races?

PI: Economic concerns are playing a significant role in both House and Senate contests.

Rising fuel prices, the cost of living, trade policies, and economic uncertainty have become prominent campaign issues, particularly in states with strong manufacturing and agricultural economies.

For example, in New York's 21st Congressional District, trade tensions with Canada have emerged as an issue affecting local communities and businesses. In Kansas, agricultural costs and economic pressures are contributing to the competitiveness of the Senate race.

These issues also intersect with broader federal policy debates affecting manufacturers, employers, and small businesses across the country.

Buka: What would a change in congressional control mean for federal policymaking?

PI: The election results will determine which party controls the legislative agenda, committee leadership, and oversight activities in the 120th Congress, beginning in January 2027.

A change in control of either chamber could influence which legislative proposals receive hearings, advance through committees, or reach the House or Senate floor. Even if one or both chambers remain under Republican control, narrower majorities could affect legislative negotiations and increase the importance of bipartisan cooperation.

For example, there may be opportunities for bipartisan cooperation on issues of shared national importance, including national security, U.S. competitiveness with China in artificial intelligence, intellectual property protection, and workforce development. These areas could provide common ground for Republicans and Democrats to advance legislation that strengthens American innovation, protects domestic industries, and supports economic growth.

Buka: Why do the midterm elections matter to the printing industry?

PI: Congressional decisions directly affect printing businesses, their employees, and the customers they serve. Several of PRINTING United Alliance's federal legislative priorities will remain important in the next Congress, including:

• Tax Policy: Advocating for tax policies that encourage business investment, job creation, and economic growth; preserving the advertising tax deduction and beneficial tax provisions in H.R. 1.
• Workforce Development: Advocating for the reauthorization of the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA), expanded apprenticeship opportunities, and programs that helps strengthen the skilled manufacturing workforce and expand career opportunities in printing.
• Trade and Tariffs: Opposing broad-based tariffs and advocating for policies that reduce the cost of imported printing equipment, paper, substrates, and other essential materials that are not readily available in sufficient quantities from domestic suppliers.
• Data Privacy: Supporting a comprehensive national data privacy framework that protects consumer information, replaces the growing patchwork of conflicting state privacy laws, and reduces regulatory and compliance burdens on businesses.
• Postal Reform: Advocating for an affordable, reliable U.S. Postal Service and strong oversight by the Postal Regulatory Commission to ensure accountability and transparency.
• Environment and Sustainability: Advocating for a national extended producer responsibility (EPR) framework and policies that reduce regulatory uncertainty, strengthen recycling efforts, and support sustainable manufacturing.
• Consumer Choice: Preserving consumers access to printed financial, healthcare, and other important communications without undue fees, restrictions or penalties.

The composition of the next Congress will influence how these issues are addressed and which legislative proposals have opportunities to advance.

Buka: How is PRINTING United Alliance preparing for the next Congress?

PI: Regardless of the election outcomes, PRINTING United Alliance remains committed to bipartisan advocacy and building relationships with lawmakers who recognize the printing industry's economic contributions.

Following the elections, the Alliance will engage with returning and newly elected members of Congress, strengthen the Congressional Printing Caucus, and continue educating policymakers about the challenges and opportunities facing printing businesses.

The Alliance will also use its 2027 PRINTING Industry Legislative Fly-In, scheduled for April 13–14 in Washington, D.C., to connect industry leaders with congressional offices and advance its federal legislative priorities.

The outcome of the midterm elections may change the balance of power in Washington, but PRINTING United Alliance's mission remains the same: ensuring the printing industry's voice is heard and its interests are represented in federal policymaking.

Sources: Cook Political Report, "Eleven More House Races Shift Toward Democrats," Erin Covey, October 16, 2026; and "A Senate Majority is Squarely in Democrats' Sights as Kansas Moves to Toss Up; Two Other Races Shift Left," Jessica Taylor, October 6, 2026.