McIlroy--Are We in Worse Shape Than Anyone Thinks?
It's been interesting to see a reversal of fortune in the newspaper and magazine business in the last six months. For many publications, ad revenues are up. The most frequently cited reason is that the dollars are being spent by dot.com companies, trying to buy "mindshare" in a crowded marketplace!
Chris Gulker has said, "If some new development sounds like it's 10 years away, it's probably a year away."
On his Website, Gulker refers to a 1993 paper by Vernor Vinge, a professor in the Department of Mathematical Sciences at San Diego State University. Called "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era," (http://www.gulker.com/ra/ singularity.html), the paper is concerned mainly with the thesis that "within 30 years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence."
The impact will be: "Developments that before were thought [to] might only happen in 'a million years' (if ever) will likely happen in the next century." Gulker uses the paper to point to the impossibility of accurately predicting trends based on short-term data analysis, and to the broader concept that the pace of change has increased so dramatically that positing a significant decline in printing and publishing is now credible.
"Technology is already moving so fast that we can no longer reliably predict the future even a few years ahead . . . "—Chris Gulker, "The Technological Singularity."
"1999 is the year we'll look back to as the year the Internet began to decrease the demand for print."—Trendwatch's Dr. Joseph W. Webb and James R. Whittington, speaking at Graph Expo 99.
It wasn't surprising to me to see Joe Webb and company starting to look in the same direction as Seybold during his presentation at Graph Expo. I think that you (as readers of this column) will start to see the same evidence, and reach the same conclusions, as you examine the evidence around you.