Marchand--Don't Let Uncertainty Hinder Planning Processes
One morning last month, the daily newspapers simultaneously gladdened my heart and embarrassed me. My pleasure came not from the chagrin—I'm hardly fond of humiliation—but from a report about the unexpectedly strong growth of employment and the likelihood that '99 will bring yet another year of economic growth. I'm delighted by the news, but embarrassed by the memory of a column of mine that appeared in these pages in November.
It offered marketing advice for the imminent downturn that many economists then predicted. I reported their projections, but I hedged: Before winter is over, slower demand may begin to reduce the number of cylinders in the market. Or not.
I'm just not sure the hard times are really waiting for us around the next turn in the road.
OK, so I covered myself against the possibility that their consensus would prove to be wrong, but the truth is, I had concluded that the forecasters were likely correct, and I made suggestions for how marketing executives in printing companies might plan for a contraction.
At the time, a recession seemed certain: events in Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia; volatility in our own stock market; and a variety of leading indicators all pointed in the same direction.
So, here I am, four months later, with egg on my face. The sages now say that no big slowdown is in the offing. Instead, they predict another good year.
Good News for Printers
Good news for many printing companies, especially since the labor markets are supposed to remain tight and skilled workers will continue to be hard to find. Sure, caution the forecasters, there are continuing uncertainties.
Brazil's economy may yet collapse, spreading financial chaos and economic misery through South America and perhaps leading to a downturn in the United States. Or Japan's troubles may be as great feared. A meltdown of the second largest economy in the world might bring deflationary forces outside the experience of any practicing economist for more than six decades.
Despite their cautionary tone, the consensus seems to point toward unbroken growth, at least for a while longer. And I am glad, even if I must eat my portion of crow. In doing so, I am in good company.
Plan for What?
Perhaps I've just never fully understood the uncertainty implicit in forecasts. I don't think so. I cannot recall another time when sunny economic news has been accompanied by such dark clouds on the horizon: chaotic currency exchange rate fluctuation, volatile financial markets, historically low commodity prices and threats of meltdown abroad.
So what is a marketer to do? The near-term choices, defined as no more than two years out, seem fairly clear: Proceed on assumptions of growth . . . but, when possible, with financial commitments that can be put on ice in the event of a sudden turn.
Examples include hiring sales reps, developing advertising and mailing campaigns, opening new markets and the increasing use of job-related digital communications (e-mail, Websites).
Surprisingly, the long-term opportunities seem less uncertain than the middle ground, two to four years out. In the long run, it is obvious that digital technology will continue to change all forms of communication at an accelerating rate. How this shapes opportunity in printing and the graphic arts is a subject touched upon in every issue of this publication and others.
There is a danger that uncertainty will lead printing companies to give up efforts to plan more than a year or two ahead. Predictions about the viability of the Internet, as a setting for business transactions, have proven reliable, even if the road has had unexpected bumps and turns. It is a terrific medium for job-related business communications. Opportunities are here, now. Selecting and exploiting them requires long-term commitments.
It is in the middle ground that I am at a loss. It is here that the greatest uncertainty lies. Two to four years from now, will we be in a recession? A deep one, accompanied by deflationary stagnation? Will we have already recovered from a mild downturn? Or have we yet to learn that we really have entered a period during which the widespread adoption of digital technology changes the business cycle in ways we do not yet understand?
I have no advice to give those in search of market strategies good for more than two years, but less than four or five. Only the obvious: Stay flexible in the short-term, able to accommodate unexpected change.
This is merely another way of saying there is no mid-term. Only a volatile near-term, which looks great at the moment. And only a long-term, whose outlines can be seen in sufficient detail to set a course for your company.
—Jacques Marchand
About the Author
Jacques Marchand is a marketing consultant based in San Francisco. He can be reached by calling (415) 648-5393 or by e-mail at jmarchand@fdc.net.
- Places:
- Korea
- Southeast Asia
- Taiwan