The Future is Bright for Commercial Printing

This is no ordinary time for commercial printing. Extreme uncertainty created by no-one-knows-what’s-next tariff policies has dampened sales, inflated operating costs, and squeezed profit margins across the industry. Meanwhile, transformative technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things, and smart robotics redefine what’s possible and widen the gap between top performers and everyone else.

Results from the PRINTING United Alliance State of the Industry Survey (SOI) show how challenging business conditions have been for the 83 commercial printers who participated. Through the first three quarters of 2025 and on average, sales increased just 0.3%, operating cost inflation ran ahead of price increases 3.9% to 2.1%, real (inflation-adjusted) sales, a measure of production, declined 1.8%, and pre-tax profitability was flat or down for 72.3% of respondents. Conditions are described as “troubled waters, with tariffs and rising costs all over the place,” and “confusion and economic uncertainty, which are causing clients to delay or defer projects and reduce run size.”

Commercial printers surveyed broadly agree that the challenges of 2025 will continue in 2026. Specifically, 61% are most concerned about increasing sales, 52.4% about maintaining profitability, and 51.2% about the economy. Persistent cost inflation, particularly labor and substrate costs, losing work to print alternatives, and uncertainty created by Washington, each cited by more than two-fifths, follow (Figure 1).

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Collectively, our research panel listed more than 30 priorities for the year ahead, ranging from focusing on core services and business fundamentals (getting back to basics) to cybersecurity. The most widely cited priorities, summarized in Figure 2, fall into four categories:

• World-class efficiency. Increasing productivity companywide, controlling costs — finding and plugging leaks — and automation ranked first, second, and third, respectively. Quality control makes the list (because markets are too competitive to pass inefficiencies on to clients) and so does increasing production speed to meet client demand for faster job turns.
• Profitable revenue growth. Capture value-added, high-profit sales. Promote the company’s full range of capabilities and the value created for clients. Improve the customer experience by reducing response times and expanding e-commerce capabilities. Diversify beyond commercial printing. (Nearly 65% have added graphic and sign printing and nearly 42% package and label printing.)
• Artificial intelligence. Explore how AI can help most. Sales prospecting? Market analysis and forecasting? Preventive maintenance?
• Business intelligence. Strengthen ERP, MIS, CRM, and comparable systems for more timely, complete data on what’s happening internally and externally, and base decisions on that data.

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Capital investment plans have clearly been affected by the extraordinary uncertainty of the past year. Among all commercial printers surveyed, 56.1% currently plan to invest in capital equipment, hardware, or software over the next 12 months, down from 70.5% in January; 19.5% do not plan to invest, up from 11.6%; and 24.4% are not sure if they will invest, up from 17.9% at the start of the year (Figure 3).

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The list of most desired investments is headed by bindery/finishing systems, so productivity gains in prepress and press are not lost to bottlenecks in the bindery, and AI, which can enhance every mission-critical function from sales prospecting to cash management. Also on the list of most desired investments (Figure 4): production inkjet, offering benefits (compared to offset) such as lower cost per page on short and medium runs, faster turn times, and greater personalization capabilities; mailing and fulfillment to generate additional value for clients and create “sticky” work; and e-commerce to extend automation directly to the client.

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We asked commercial printers what they see when they look ahead to 2026. They talked about a continued loss of work to print alternatives, rising postage rates and delivery issues. One responded, “I am losing confidence that the USPS will ever be able to deliver according to their own schedules, fill empty staff positions, and run at a break-even level.” They also noted continued consolidation and shakeout of weaker companies, and the need for “more macroeconomic stability.”

They talked about something significant to every commercial printer, regardless of company size, revenue composition, or customer base: the widening gap between “the haves and have-nots,” or industry leaders and everyone else.

The question is why the gap is widening. The answer is because commercial printing, like the printing industry at large, is changing structurally as well as cyclically.

Cyclical change is the ups and downs of the economy, interest rates, inflation, government policies (such as tariff policies) and everything else that moves in a business or political cycle. Each cycle requires adjusting business practices but not redefining them — what got you through the last runup in interest rates will get you through this one.

Structural change is fundamental change in the very nature of an industry driven by transformative technologies such as AI, the Internet of Things, and smart robotics. Structural change does not simply create new ways to do what we’ve always done. Rather, it creates a spectrum of new possibilities, requiring new mindsets and approaches. Structural change exempts no one: You either adapt to it or you get left behind. There is no third option.

Structural change means a rising tide no longer lifts all boats. This year the American economy will grow a modest 1.5%-1.8%. Next year growth may reach 2.5%-3%, accelerating as 2026 progresses. Among the reasons:

• Productivity is increasing economywide as companies aided by AI boost automation, production speed, and efficiency. Consistent productivity gains drive a virtuous cycle that supports sustained, noninflationary economic growth.
• Immediate expensing measures in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will encourage capital investment, strengthening the virtuous cycle despite the uncertainty created by tariff policies.
• Rising productivity and moderating energy prices will tamp down inflation, supporting reductions in both short-term and long-term interest rates.

But even if the economy strengthens, uncertainty eases, and business conditions are more favorable in 2026 than they were in 2025, no commercial printing company can count on a better outcome. As one SOI contributor says so well, success is now reserved “for those who embrace technology through automation, robotics, cloud-based infrastructure solutions, pragmatic AI, customer-centric culture, and workforce development.”

Let’s add the following requirements to his list:

• Moving ahead with business plans, priorities and capital investment because during periods of extreme uncertainty, moving forward is risky but sitting still and waiting for clarity is even risker.
• Strengthening risk management through scenario planning, risk heatmaps, and risk registers and opportunity evaluation through the Cagan Opportunity Assessment, Lean Canvas, and Product Opportunity Evaluation Matrix. The State of the Industry Report 2025: Turning Uncertainty into Opportunity, available on printing.org, outlines how.
• Having an AI/smart robotics strategy. Understanding their capabilities and how they can help, setting objectives and tracking progress toward those objectives, staying abreast of developments in both fields, and having someone responsible for your strategy.

So what’s the outlook for 2026? It’s bright — at least for commercial printers prepared to make structural change and the transformative technologies driving it are an opportunity rather than a threat.