Book Manufacturing Outlook: Digital Printing Soothes Slowdown

The book manufacturing market has experienced an unpredictable few years. While it has been far from ideal conditions for forecasting and planning, it hasn’t been all bad; indeed, the lack of experiential options outside of the home during COVID fuelled renewed interest in physical books. And while some pandemic-related hobbies such as bread baking and Zoom quizzing will be less in vogue in 2024, it does seem that the demand for printed books has endured. Publishers Weekly cites NPD BookScan research, claiming that while 2022 unit sales of printed books (788.7 million) fell 6.5% below 2021 figures, they are still up 11.8% when compared with 2019.

In other positive news, we are seeing a sunnier supply chain picture. Faced with substantial demand, book printers in recent years — desperate to get their hands on paper and fulfill clients’ orders — were regularly thwarted by supply chain challenges and paper availability issues. “In the short term, I would say the paper availability issue has gone away,” says Steve Zweber, vice president of global print manufacturing, operations, and distribution, at Core Publishing Solutions in Eagan, Minnesota.

Long-Term Picture for Paper Remains Cloudy

“The availability [of paper] just feels like we’re in a whole different world,” adds Hunter Johnson, CEO of JPS Graphics in Dallas, Texas. However, the long-term environment remains uncertain, and printers remain cautious. The consolidation and shifts in focus seen from paper mills in the past few years will continue to have an impact. Johnson explains: “We’ve had some price relief, but it feels like the paper supply is becoming more and more concentrated, with small mills going under and mills buying each other.”

Zweber continues: “I think the long-term issue with paper is not going to go away. We need to be forward-looking and working with the publishers to be ready to pivot in the future, should the availability of the types of papers we’ve traditionally used be reduced.”

Karl Shearer, vice president of sales and business development at Bradford & Bigelow in Newburyport, Massachusetts, also acknowledges the importance of looking to the future and being prepared for potential uncertainty when it comes to paper access. “We have diversified our vendor base a little bit across our paper and various materials coming into the plant. But it has certainly normalized, and we see that continuing, certainly into next year.”

Another knock-on effect that still looms large is the challenge of bloated inventories. Once book manufacturers got their hands on the coveted paper, they stocked up whenever they could, not knowing when they would have access to more. The practice wasn’t limited to book printing and production, as publishers increased order sizes and filled their roster with desirable titles. This has not led to a healthy “supply and demand” enterprise in these markets, and the subsequent slowdown, forecasted in Printing Impressions’ 2023 book manufacturing outlook, is now being sharply felt as we move into 2024.

The Executive Summary of “The State of the Book Industry 2023” from the Book Manufacturers Institute, in collaboration with NAPCO Research, quotes Bill Rojack, vice president of the national division for Midland Paper, in relation to this problem: “The expectation, at least in the book market, is that we are not going to consume the raw material paper inventories until we sell through the finished good backlist titles. Then they’ll start using some of the inventory, and then we might expect demand for new manufacturing to come back.”

Zweber notes that the predicted loss of momentum is a familiar experience in the market, adding: “Correcting and overcorrecting because of the orders that were placed meant publisher inventories did get padded pretty heavily. We had a bit of a forewarning on this, and we certainly experienced some of that slowness. In touching base with colleagues across the industry, they’re seeing the same thing. Things really slowed down.”

Johnson agrees that abundance of inventory has resulted in a slowdown of reorders. “The supply chain settling down has had an effect as well. Previously, if you had paper and [production] capacity, people were placing orders just to make sure they had books, whereas now if I need to do something just-in-time, that’s more of an option. We can afford to ride out our current inventory, and better afford to not take as much risk in terms of placing orders well ahead of firm commitments.”

Growth of Digital Print Production

This has given fuel to a fire already burning in book manufacturing — the rise of demand for digitally printed books. With inventories covered, as Johnson references, publishers can take an on-demand approach to ordering, which is ideal for quick turnarounds and short runs.

“What has been affirmed is the demand for digitally printed products,” explains Zweber. “The publishers are affirming that the ability to place more frequent reprint orders is going to be important for them in the future. What’s going to be critical for that model to work is a quick turnaround time and short lead times for an on-time delivery.

“Those are the key factors for publishers in 2024,” according to Zweber. “They don’t want to get stuck with the same inventory issues that they had, and the only way to manage that is to be able to place those reprint orders more frequently.”

The advancements in digital printing technology, particularly production inkjet, are supporting those with moves into new markets, something that, particularly since COVID, is increasingly desirable to book manufacturing businesses. “On the digital side, the quality and the speed have certainly gotten better,” Shearer says, noting that digital and conventional printing complement each other based on run length requirements.

“Bradford & Bigelow has invested in two world-class manroland Goss [web offset] presses, which gives us considerable extra capacity and quality,” Shearer adds.

In Printing Impressions’ book printing outlook article that forecasted the market for 2023, one interviewee expressed desire for the proliferation of digital beyond reprints. According to Zweber, they may see this wish fulfilled. “There are certainly publishers placing some of their first print orders that fit a model of digital as well, thanks to advancements in digital technology.”

JPS Graphics’ printing operation is 100% digital, and almost exclusively short-run output. Johnson foresees the business continuing to eat into offset’s market share. “The growth I see for us is in that gray area between digital and offset. That was the whole reason we added inkjet web [capabilities], to take the top end off some of those run lengths. It used to be that 1,500 to 2,000 books was the ceiling for us, but we think we can grow that share for some shorter offset runs with our inkjet web.”

So, looking ahead to 2024, book printers will continue to contend with the expected slowdown, but an increasing number are better equipped to address the evolving requirements of book publishers thanks to their digital printing capabilities.

The book printers interviewed also raised additional industry trends worth monitoring. As sustainability becomes increasingly crucial to publishers and other businesses throughout the print supply chain, book manufacturers are working to do their part to reduce waste and environmentally optimize production. Shearer’s plant analysis at Bradford & Bigelow showed that “98% of what we what we do is either recycled or goes out as a finished product.”

Elsewhere, Zweber suggests that the reshoring necessitated by COVID may be on the decline. “It appears publishers are starting to look at going back overseas, so we need to keep an eye on that in terms of how much that’s going to influence the North American market,” he explains.

Forecasting and planning may be tougher than ever, but with many of the lingering pandemic-related constraints easing year-over-year, and as book printers continue to optimize, automate, invest, and innovate, they are undoubtedly in a stronger position to manage and mitigate their risks.