Thinking Upstream: Preventing Problems Before They Occur

Benjamin Franklin famously wrote, “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” Franklin penned those words in the specific context of fire safety, which led to the establishment of the Union Fire Co., and to fire safety for the general public.

The wisdom of those words continues to ring true today, and can be very valuable to us, our teams, and the people we serve if we take it to heart and put it into practice. Dan Heath builds upon Franklin’s concept in his book “Upstream: The Quest to Solve Problems Before They Happen,” in which he advocates for “upstream” thinking, which is defined as efforts to prevent problems before they occur. This is in contrast to “downstream” thinking, which is reacting to problems after they occur.

I think the benefits of embracing and implementing upstream thinking are pretty obvious. Preventing problems before they occur can save time, energy, frustration, money — and in some cases, human injuries or even lives (e.g., upfront medical tests for life-threatening illnesses). But Heath points out some challenges to adopting upstream thinking, such as:

• Problem blindness. This includes not seeing the problems, or seeing the negative outcomes and believing they are regrettable but natural and not solvable (e.g., We will always have “x” level of unhappy customers or have “y” error rates).
• Lack of ownership. Some people may feel that the problem is not theirs to fix (i.e., refusing to own the problem). Sometimes, problems lack owners because of fragmented responsibilities — where multiple departments touch a problem but there is not one clear responsible party — or just a feeling it’s not our place to intervene.
• Tunneling. Sometimes if we are juggling multiple problems, we can give up trying to solve them all (“I can’t deal with that right now”). Tunneling can result in tunnel vision, confined to short-term, reactive thinking.

Key Principles for Thinking Upstream

Here are 10 key principles for thinking upstream.

1. Take Ownership of Potential Problems

Embrace the upstream thinking mindset, which includes looking for potential problems and taking ownership of them, and not waiting for someone else to resolve them. Strive to be a “problem finder” and realize small problems often precede big problems — so better to discover and resolve problems early on before they grow into big issues that can do great harm.

2. Plan Ahead

President John F. Kennedy wisely said, “The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.” The best time to think upstream is when the water (life) is calm and you can carefully plan to keep it that way. It’s hard to think upstream when you are in the middle of a storm and just trying to stay afloat. The advice of former Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian applies: “It’s better to be prepared for events that don’t happen than unprepared for events that do.”

3. Learn from the Past

We are wise to learn from our past experiences, including mistakes and the resulting problems. In his book “The Best Place to Work: The Art and Science of Creating an Extraordinary Workplace,” social psychologist Ron Friedman wrote, “Mistakes are the tuition you pay for success.” I suggest it’s especially wise to learn from and avoid the mistakes of others. I resonate with this advice from Warren Buffett: “It’s good to learn from your mistakes. It’s better to learn from other people’s mistakes.”

A special learning opportunity comes from going through a major crisis, like the COVID-19 pandemic. Winston Churchill said, “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” We can seize the opportunity to learn and be prepared for any future crisis that comes our way.

4. Strongly Consider Strategic Sourcing

Strategic sourcing involves not using a single vendor (source) for our key materials, supplies, and services, although exceptions may apply. If you are a single-sourced operation, there will always be concern around what happens to your ability to produce goods and services if that one vendor has financial, supply chain, or operational problems. Strategic sourcing also considers where the vendor is located — do we really want to rely on having a crucial item we need coming only from an overseas supplier?

5. Encourage Collaboration and Involve People

All of us are smarter than any one of us. We need the people on our immediate teams, supporting teams like IT, and our key vendors and suppliers to anticipate potential problems before they occur, and then design and implement effective preventive solutions. We can encourage all people — especially our front-line employees — to share their current concerns and any potential problems they foresee in the future.

One way to do this is to have planned brainstorm sessions where we ask people to share potential problems they think might be in our future. We can also think about potential scenarios (e.g., pandemics and natural disasters like earthquakes and fires), and discuss how we can be prepared to prevent or at least minimize the impact.

6. Change Systems as Needed

Remember this key principle from business theorist W. Edwards Deming: “Every system is perfectly designed to get the results it gets.” We need to continuously evaluate the results of our systems based on their actual outcomes, including their impact on our key stakeholders. Getting stakeholder input like customer feedback is valuable. And part of our system evaluation should include our ability to prevent problems — or at least to mitigate their impact.

7. Have Proven Backup Systems in Place

We should have backup systems and processes in place for our key equipment and operations. One strategy is to have prudent internal redundancy. For example, we had two printers and two inserters at my print and mail operations, and were able to produce key deliverables with only a single printer or single inserter if one unit was down.

Another backup option we used was to have a reciprocal agreement with a comparable operation — we could use the partner’s equipment and technology to produce our outputs, and vice versa. A third strategy we used was relying on a vendor for backup purposes. One important tip for all three of these options is to test them out on a regular basis — you don’t want to be in emergency mode and find out your backup plan doesn’t work. One additional tip: make sure that crucial spare parts are stored on-site or can be delivered on short notice.

8. Test Thoroughly

In addition to testing our backup systems and processes, we should thoroughly test all proposed solutions before they go live. We have all seen new systems go live with poor results due to inadequate testing — we don’t want to join that club.

9. Pursue Poka-Yoke

Poka-yoke is a Japanese term that means “mistake-proofing” to prevent errors in a process. We see “mistake-proofing” examples in our everyday lives. Examples include car safety features (e.g., beeps if a door is open while engine is running or a seat belt is not fastened); elevators and garage doors equipped with sensors that prevent doors from closing if there is something or someone in the way; spell check functions in software programs and phones; and more.

We can intentionally implement poka-yoke with tools such as checklists that offer guidance to avoid errors; by ensuring software applications have built-in checks (e.g., require entries on key data fields in the correct format); and by using technology and “smart” equipment (e.g., camera systems on inserters).

10. Measure Regularly and Track Progress

We should monitor leading indicators and measures that can warn us of potential bigger problems ahead, such as an increase in customer complaints or a spike in error rates. We also need to be responsive to external signposts that may affect our operations. Here’s an example: If you are a print and/or mail vendor for your state, and your state is exploring adding Vote by Mail, be ready.

Here is a closing Benjamin Franklin quote: “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.” Preventing problems before they occur requires upstream work, but the downstream benefits are well worth the effort.