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Hot Markets for 2007 — Prepare for Growth

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DON’T BELIEVE the pundits. The U.S. economy will expand, not contract, in 2007-2008, and to an annual growth rate of nearly 4 percent in GDP. This will reverse the downward adjusted 3.2 percent in 2006 and 2005. Our industry should makeready to run forward at near the GDP rate. The reason: print growth is tied to the “knowledge economy,” which is not calculated into GDP while government, an outlay, is.

Research and development, if treated as a capital investment rather than as an intermediate expense, boosts GDP by 3 percent and the national savings rate by more than 2 percent. The U.S. accounts for 32 percent of the worldwide R&D number, and the payoff to packaging and printing will be exponential during the next two years among the Hot Markets detailed here.

A knowledge dividend will principally accrue to Number 1 publishing/non-newspaper ($112B, +3 percent; with $15.7B to print, +11 percent). The robust value proposition of digital versioning combined with special-effects offset will excite professional/educational books ($4.1B to print, +14 percent) and juvenile/adult trades, CDI and religious publishing ($3.0B to print, +14 percent).

Conversely, periodicals ($6B to print, -2 percent) will continue to decline in ad/circulation revenues, as will the number of heatset full webs. Other/non-traditional publishing ($1.6B to print, +14 percent) will be dominated by foreign language/content publications coming onshore and newspaper FSIs. Greeting cards ($1B to print, +4 percent) are losing ground to upstart e-cards as production and distribution costs of conventional printed products drive higher prices. Specialty finishers have to migrate to packaging and fancy publication covers and inserts.

At Number 2 will be banking and insurance ($3.02T, +6 percent; with $15.6B to print, +2 percent). Commercial banking ($11.6B to print, +2 percent) is the largest direct mailer and a major demander of signage, outdoor, transit, forms and stationery. Mergers will slow to smaller banks, limiting category growth, but the buyers will be foreign-based financial institutions. Name changes!

Insuring a Strong Future

Property/casualty insurers ($1.9B to print, +5 percent) and life insurance ($2.1B to print, +5 percent) are rebounding as rising real estate values, personal debt and an aging population demand greater coverage. Related is Number 10-ranked investment brokerage ($873B, +15 percent; with $8.5B to print, +7 percent) where investment banks/syndication ($3.5B to print, -11 percent) will nearly equal securities brokerage ($3.6B to print, +3 percent).

The largest spate of across-the-board consolidations will exceed the record in 2006 and bring tremendous demand for open-web, sheetfed and hybrid/digital financial printing. Also bigger in branding will be the exchanges. NYSE Group’s merger with Euronext NV, its acquisition of Marco Polo Network, and the NASDAQ/London Stock Exchange (LSE) link-up, underscore globalization of trading and investing. Initial public offerings will also shatter the ’06 record, which overturned the previous record in 2000. Mutual funds ($1.4B to print, +55 percent) in post- consolidation will come back with direct mail and ROP marketing. Number 3 medical products/pharmaceuticals ($373B, +3 percent; with $12.9B to print, +4 percent) will be led by pharmaceuticals and wellness ($8.3B to print, +7 percent) as new and rebranded medicines come to market and as government intervention impels generics. Packaging, point-of-purchase (POP), ROP and bind-in placements will be at half last year’s growth because of price and regulatory pressures. Medical products ($3.0B to print, -6 percent) and biotechnology ($0.8B to print, -14 percent) will slash print buys as Congress and class-action lawsuits hamstring product introductions.

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The graphic communications industry is facing some very serious challenges, but that doesn't mean there isn't still a lot of life and opportunity in our future. 

Competing for Print's Thriving Future focuses on how printers can create their own positive future by understanding and taking advantage of the emerging changes — the changes that are shaping the printing industry of today and tomorrow. 

Use the research, analysis, and forecasts in this book to: 
• Assess the changes taking place
• Understand the changes
• Design a plan to deal with the changes

Topics include: 
• Economic forces, life cycle, and competitive position
• Place in the national and global economies
• Industry structure, cost structure, and profitability trends
• Emerging market spaces--ancillary and print management services
• Competitive strategies, tactics, and business models
• Key practices of SuperPrinters
• Combating foreign competition
• Social network usage
• A ten-step process to survive and thrive Competing for Print’s Thriving Future

The graphic communications industry is facing some very serious challenges, but that doesn't mean there isn't still a lot of life and opportunity in our future. “Competing for Print's Thriving Future” focuses on how printers can create their own positive future by understanding and taking advantage of the  changes that...










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