2009 Hot Markets -- Thawing In a Frigid Economy

Sobering down are adult beverages and the places where they’re consumed. Beers and malts ($2B to print, -20%) are tapping out, while wines and spirits are “straight up” with both newcomers Drinks America (+356%) and long-time top shelfers like Bacardi (+11%) pouring new brands and raising the bar. Boxed wines are a “grand cru” for West Coast printing and converting.

Marketing unions as with Molson Coors/SAB Miller, and global consolidations as with Anheuser-Busch/InBev in brewing, and Appleby’s/IHOP in casual dining, foretell more marketing and corporate contractions in both sectors. Many taverns and full-service, independent restaurants ($2.1B to print, -25%) will be starved out.

Ranked No. 4 is medical products/pharmaceuticals

($414B, +3%; with $12.3B to print, +2%). Pharmaceuticals and wellness ($7.8B to print, -8%) are anything but healthy, as patents expire and generics prevail. Packaging, point-of-purchase (POP), ROP and bind-in placements are in decline with the dearth of new medicines. Medical products and biotechnology ($4.5B to print, +12%) will counter traditional pharma with a flourish of new products. It’s where we must be in the waiting room.

Connected, at No. 11, will be health providers ($2.6T, +13%; with $7.8B to print, -2%). With universal healthcare now a “when,” and not an “if,” bad debt-riddled hospitals and non-hospital care ($2.0B to print, -13%) segments will be asking for relief and, in turn, will be ordered to cut their marketing. Analysts are also concerned about growing liability exposures among EMSs and diagnostic labs. Health insurance and third-party administration ($5.5B to print, 0%) will be the only PMOs (print maintenance organizations).

Computer software ($520B, +20%; with $11.1B to print, 0%) is No. 5. Besides the excitement that Google engenders, and those trying to take over Yahoo, there’s genuinely something new in the New Year, and it’s being delivered by Amazon. Elastic cloud computing (EC2) will shake up the enterprise and Internet segments by allowing “everyone” to write network applications and rewrite network infrastructure. Oracle, Citrix and most other database, middleware and programming tools will be cloud cross-licensed now that it’s out of beta testing.