2009 Hot Markets -- Thawing In a Frigid Economy
Macmillan’s “Global Reader,” Amazon’s “Kindle” and other mobile services will grow at a 50% pace. Pat Schroeder, head of the Association of American Publishers, sums it up: “Publishers don’t own paper companies or printing presses. They don’t care how you read it, as long as you read it.” Lest we forget (as a generation of readers has) periodicals ($6B to print, 0%); there’s no comeback. Content is outdated and circulation is by outlaws.
Every major magazine publisher is down except for Oprah Winfrey’s Harpo Productions (+12%). More than a hundred full-web printers will disappear in 2009 as periodical publishers dissipate. No salutations are in the mail for greeting cards ($0.9B to print, -10%) as spending (and manners) recede. There’s more red ink: Once-promising other/non-traditional publishing ($0.6B to print, -63%), made up of FSIs, marriage mail and ethnic upstarts, is half of its former self. The imminent closing of the Borders chain speaks (not reads) “volumes” about the new disease of illiteracy in America.
Need some appetizing news? No. 3 ranked packaged foods ($896B, +16%; with $13.2B to print, +17%) is the hungriest print buyer. Food inflation, and a cultural return to home cooking (and cookbooks), will abundantly feed folding carton, closure, thermoforming, wrap and roll label producers. The Top 40 food providers will continue to give up a substantial 20% or more share to foreign food marketers, now green fielding into the United States. Barilla, Nong Shim, Bimbo and Weston are among several hundred now-onshore entrants (and new buyers) for domestic packaging and promotional printing.
Dried foods/snacks and frozen/microwavable foods ($7B to print, +26%) will heat up, followed by other/fresh-packaged foods ($3B to print, +20%). Less warm will be pet foods and bottled/canned foods ($beverages ($394B, +8%; with $9.8B to print, +11%) and No. 16 ranked food service ($699B, +
Vincent Mallardi, C.M.C., is a the chairman of the Printing Brokerage/Buyers Association International (PBBA) and is a Certified Management Consultant in the paper, printing and converting industries. He is also an adjunct professor in economics. Contact him via email at firstname.lastname@example.org