2009 Hot Markets -- Thawing In a Frigid Economy

EVEN AS THE overall economy plummets to well below zero in real GDP, the New Year has some “highs” in the forecast. There are some very warm and, yes, hot spots for print, but marketers must rise above the clouds of gloom and change the climate. It will leave competitors feeling under-the-weather. The No. 1 demander of print will be, no joking, banking/insurance ($3.5T, +8%; with $14.3B to print, +investment/brokerage ($1.0T, +7%; with $4.9B to print, -39%) will continue its crash in print. Investment banks/syndication ($1.2B to print, -68%) and securities brokerage ($1.4B to print, -57%) are slashing staff, offices and branding, as well as their throats. Just as relationship marketing comes of age with robust print personalization, this business fails us. Mutual funds ($2.2B to print, -12%) must stem redemptions and stir up new investors with direct mail printing and FSIs. There will be fewer funds and managers, but nearly as much work, as the old names like Lehman Brothers change, and others, like Merrill Lynch, are rebranded as part of other firms.

Disappointingly, at No. 2 will be publishing/non-newspaper ($97B, -10%; with $14.2B to print, -8%). Fewer titles, page counts and run lengths are three-knife trimming this sector. Juvenile/adult trades/ CDI and religious publishing ($3.1B to print, 0%) will lack best sellers, and reader incomes to buy them. Scholastic Publishing is off 46%, post- “Harry Potter,” while all retail book sales are down more than 7%. Professional/educational books ($3.6B to print, -11%) are folding to versioned, digital micro-publishing, digital distribution as with Bibliovault, and online courses and content.