Offshore Paper Usage — Mixed Emotions on the Rise

—Bruce Janis, president, Management Science for the Publishing and Graphic Arts

"The forecast for the second half of '98 is bleak. Pulp prices are the market's driver/indicator, and prices are down from June to July. And there's no reason for that forecast to change. 1999 is going to be miserable.

"Wall Street analysts say recovery will take until the year 2000 at least. It will take China that long to get back on its feet.

"The Asian financial crisis gives us three components to consider. First: the Asian paper that would normally be sold in Asia, which, since not being sold, is finding its way here. Second: the European paper that was supposed to be sold in Asia, which is now coming here. Third: the exports that were to be sold in Asia, which are now staying here.

"Together, those three components are building up supply in the U.S., along with heavy supplies still in printers' inventories. There's an overabundance of paper in this country."

—John J. Buckley, president, National Paper Trade Association