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Q3 Paper Outlook--Predictable Patterns

June 1998

With Stora and other mills running their machines at full capacity, will paper supply outweigh demand? Janis doesn't think so. Printers haven't overstocked, and they need the paper that mills are manufacturing. That's the type of scenario that supports price increases.

"There haven't been any major changes in supply for quite a while," Janis says, "and there's nothing on the horizon to imply any changes in that direction.

"The inventory situation has not changed all that much from the printer's standpoint," he adds.

"In terms of what I have visibility over," Kullman observes, "printer/publisher levels in R.R. Donnelley are at very manageable levels. There is no significant buildup in the Donnelley system.

"With inventories at modest levels heading into the busiest season of the year, and mills running at full capacity, that to me says groundwood paper prices will go up," concludes Kullman.


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